Bar business plan: pour cost, licensing and the numbers a lender checks

Texas bars and restaurants took about 19% less for alcohol in January than in December in each of the last two winters. A bar plan that forecasts twelve even months will run short of cash in its first January.

A bar business plan needs four numbers a restaurant plan does not: a pour cost target for each drink category, the liquor license and liquor liability insurance lines, a sales forecast by month and by night of the week, and the monthly sales that break even after loan payments. For scale, SBA 7(a) loans to independent bar start-ups in fiscal 2024 to 2026 had a median of $316,000, and the median Texas mixed-beverage permit holder reported $249,080 of alcohol sales in 2025. Last checked: 5 November 2026.

What is pour cost, and what should a bar target?

Pour cost is the cost of the alcohol in a drink divided by its menu price. It is the bar's version of food cost, and the first number an investor will test against your drink prices.

Pour cost % = cost of the alcohol (and mixers) in the drink / menu price x 100
Cost per pour = bottle cost / pours per bottle

A 750 ml bottle holds 25.4 fluid ounces, or 16.9 pours of 1.5 ounces. A half-barrel keg holds 15.5 gallons, or 1,984 ounces. Here is the arithmetic for four typical drinks; every price is an example, so use your invoices.

There is no official benchmark for pour cost; figures quoted online come from vendors and vary. Set a target per category from your concept and prices, then hold every new drink to it. The menu price calculator works backward from a target cost percentage to a price, and our recipe costing guide shows how to cost syrups and other batch prep once and reuse the figure. When your actual pour cost runs above target, the voids, comps and stock checks in our till checks guide show where to look first.

What do bars actually sell? Liquor, beer and wine mix

Your blended pour cost depends on your mix, so plan the mix first. Texas publishes the alcohol sales of every mixed-beverage permit holder, month by month. Our analysis of the Texas Comptroller's Mixed Beverage Gross Receipts data (2025 reporting months, downloaded 5 November 2026, statewide totals only) finds:

Permit holders include restaurants with a bar, not only bars, so a pure bar will usually sit above the median. Use the mix to blend your targets. With example targets of 18% for liquor, 25% for beer and 30% for wine, the Texas mix gives a blended pour cost of about 21%:

(59.8% x 18%) + (27.0% x 25%) + (12.3% x 30%) = 10.76 + 6.75 + 3.69 = 21.2%

If your concept is a beer bar, beer's share is far higher than 27%, and your blended cost rises with it. Plan for that rather than discovering it.

How seasonal is bar trade?

Very, and January is the worst month. In the same Texas data, indexed against the 2025 monthly average (100), January sits at 85 and May at 112:

Use these as a starting shape for your monthly forecast, then adjust for your own market: a college town, a ski resort and a downtown sports bar have very different calendars. Statewide receipts fell about 19% from December to January in both of the last two winters, with liquor and wine falling furthest; the category detail, and how a costed no and low list keeps some of that spend, is in our Dry January menu guide.

Within the week, forecast by session (weekday early evening, Friday and Saturday late night, game days) and write down the assumption behind each. Late-night spend per guest is the hardest assumption to prove before you open, so give that session your most cautious figure.

What should a bar plan say about licensing and insurance?

The liquor license is often the largest and slowest line in a bar plan, and the rules are set by each state and sometimes each city or county.

• Type of license. Most states separate beer and wine from full liquor, and restaurant licenses (with a food requirement) from bar or tavern licenses. Price the one your concept needs.
• Quota states. Some states cap the number of full liquor licenses by population. From 1 January 2027, California's ABC application fee schedule charges $20,495 for a new on-sale general license (types 47 and 48), available only to winners of its priority drawing, against $1,170 for a beer and wine license such as a type 41 eating place. Both rise 3.31% from the 2026 fees ($19,840 and $1,135), and ABC can raise them each year by up to inflation. Where licenses are capped, buying an existing one from another business can cost far more than the state fee.
• Timeline. Put the expected approval date in the plan, with rent running from the lease date. Every month waiting is a month of rent with no sales.
• Liquor liability insurance. Many states have dram shop laws that can make a licensed seller liable for harm caused by a guest it over-served or served underage. Landlords and lenders often ask for liquor liability cover; get a broker quote and put it in the plan as a monthly line.
• Security and door staff. If you trade late, budget for them; they are a fixed cost on every late night.

Ask your state's alcohol agency for the license types, fees and timeline, and check with a local attorney for your situation. UK readers should see our pub EPOS guide for wet GP and legal measures.

What numbers will a lender check in a bar business plan?

The same tests as any restaurant start-up: your equity, and cash flow covering loan payments with room to spare. The tests and the SBA rules behind them are in our restaurant business plan guide. What lenders have actually done for bars:

Our analysis of the SBA's 7(a) and 504 FOIA loan data (as of 30 September 2026) for drinking places (NAICS 722410), independent start-ups, fiscal 2024 to 2026: 315 loans, median $316,000, middle half $135,000 to $647,500, and 80% at variable rates. Of drinking-place start-up loans approved in fiscal 2010 to 2014 that were not canceled (franchises included), 8.6% (29 of 336) were later charged off, against 11.7% for full-service restaurant start-ups on the same basis.

Worked example: a bar planning $70,000 a month. All figures are examples.

Break-even sales are fixed costs plus the loan ($45,232) divided by what each dollar of sales contributes after drink, food and card costs (74.35 cents): about $60,800 a month. Now apply the Texas January index of 85: $70,000 x 0.85 = $59,500. This bar loses money in January even though it clears the lender's test on the annual numbers. Your plan should show the cash reserve that carries it through.

Bar business plan template: P&L and pour cost sheet

Copy this into a spreadsheet, one column per month.

BAR P&L                          Jan   Feb   Mar   ...   Dec   Year
Seasonal index (Texas 2025)       85    92   111   ...   106
SALES
  Liquor                         [ ]
  Beer                           [ ]
  Wine                           [ ]
  Food                           [ ]
  Cover charges and events       [ ]
  TOTAL SALES                    =SUM
COST OF SALES
  Liquor  (sales x liquor pour cost %)
  Beer    (sales x beer pour cost %)
  Wine    (sales x wine pour cost %)
  Food    (sales x food cost %)
GROSS PROFIT                     =sales - cost of sales
OPERATING COSTS
  Payroll and payroll taxes      [ ]
  Rent, CAM, property tax        [ ]
  Liquor liability and GL        [ ]
  Utilities                      [ ]
  Card fees (% of sales)         [ ]
  Entertainment, door, security  [ ]
  Repairs, glassware, supplies   [ ]
  License renewals / 12          [ ]
  Marketing                      [ ]
  Accounting, software           [ ]
EBITDA                           =gross profit - operating costs
Loan payments                    [ ]
CASH FLOW AFTER DEBT             =EBITDA - loan
Debt service coverage            =EBITDA / loan payments

POUR COST SHEET
Drink | Spirit oz | Bottle $ | Other ingredients $ | Cost $ | Price $ | Pour cost %
      |           |          |                     |        |         |
TARGETS: liquor __%  beer __%  wine __%  blended __%

For start-up budget lines that are not bar-specific, use our restaurant startup budget.

Can TablePort handle this for you?

TablePort runs the bar side of the plan day to day:

1. Tabs in a tap. Open a tab on the table or at the bar, keep adding rounds, and close it by card or split it when the night ends.
2. Cost every cocktail. With the Stock add-on, give each drink a recipe and its cost updates when the bottle price on your invoice changes.
3. Sales by day. Daily reports show what sold each night, so you can check the seasonal and session forecast in your plan against what happened.

The honest limit: TablePort does not help with US liquor licensing, and it does not pre-authorize or store a guest's card against an open tab. POS Starter is $59 a month per location. See bars and pubs.