Dry January: build a no and low drinks list that keeps your margin
How many guests do Dry January, how far drinks sales fall, and how to build, cost and price a no and low list that keeps 70% of your drinks margin. UK and US.
By the TablePort teamFacts checked 10 min read
Texas bars and restaurants took 19.9% less for liquor and 27.7% less for wine in January 2026 than in December 2025. You cannot fix a quiet January, but you can protect the drinks margin.
Build a list of three to five no and low serves, cost each one from your invoices, and price each for cash margin: aim to keep at least 70% of the money you make on the alcoholic drink it replaces. Use one house base across two serves to cut waste, and keep the list all year, not just in January. Last checked: 5 November 2026.
How many guests are doing Dry January?
About a third of UK adults planned to take part in 2026, and about a fifth of US adults said they were taking part, with more of them stopping partway through. Plan for guests who drink less, not only guests who drink nothing.
- UK: 17.5 million people, almost one in three UK adults (32%), planned to take a month off alcohol in January 2026, according to Alcohol Change UK (December 2025), from Censuswide polls of 2,000 adults in November 2025. More than a fifth said they were keen to drink less throughout 2026.
- US: 19% of Americans surveyed reported taking part as of 26 January 2026, one point up on 2025, according to CivicScience (26 January 2026). The share who did not finish nearly doubled, from 12% to 20%, and 49% of participants aged 21 to 29 said they had not completed the month.
Planned is not the same as done, and these are polls, not sales. The useful reading for an owner is the second half of each finding: a large group wants to drink less for longer than a month, and a growing group drops in and out. That group orders a low-alcohol spritz one week and a 0% beer the next. Your list has to serve both.
What happens to drinks sales in January? Our analysis of UK and Texas data
Drinks sales fall hard in January on both sides of the Atlantic. Part of the fall is December being high; the rest is a genuinely quiet month.
UK: our analysis of HMRC's Alcohol Bulletin tables (published 28 August 2026). HMRC reports the litres of pure alcohol cleared for sale each month; we used the "total clearances" column for beer, wine and spirits in the monthly tables. Alcohol Duty rose on 1 February 2025 and 1 February 2026, and in both years January clearances jumped while February dropped, which looks like stock cleared early ahead of the rise. To smooth that out we compared November and December together with the following January and February.
| Winter | Beer | Wine | Spirits |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 to 24 | -29.5% | -34.7% | -45.0% |
| 2024 to 25 | -25.0% | -28.9% | -34.8% |
| 2025 to 26 | -25.0% | -33.5% | -27.6% |
Change in clearances from November plus December to the following January plus February, litres of pure alcohol.
In January 2024, the last January with no duty rise the following month, clearances fell 36% for beer, 36% for wine and 49% for spirits against December 2023. These figures cover shops as well as pubs and restaurants, and clearances follow when duty is paid, not when a drink is poured.
US: our analysis of the Texas Comptroller's Mixed Beverage Gross Receipts data (downloaded 5 November 2026). Every Texas bar and restaurant with a mixed beverage permit reports monthly receipts for liquor, wine, beer and cover charges. We summed them statewide by the month they cover, with no venue names.
| Texas, statewide | December 2025 | January 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liquor receipts | $546m | $437m | -19.9% |
| Wine receipts | $130m | $94m | -27.7% |
| Beer receipts | $226m | $201m | -11.3% |
| Total, incl. cover | $913m | $740m | -18.9% |
January 2026 was also 17.9% below the average of February to September 2026, so it is a low month in its own right, not just a fall from December. January was the lowest month of the year for Texas receipts in 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, and is the lowest month so far in 2026.
What it means for your list: the money leaves through spirits and cocktails first. A guest who would have ordered a cocktail and orders tap water instead is the real January loss. A cocktail-quality no and low serve is how you keep part of that spend.
What should go on a no and low drinks list?
Three to five serves, each with a job. More than five and the extra bottles sit open; fewer than three and the list looks like an afterthought.
| Slot | Example | Why it earns its place |
|---|---|---|
| House signature | Spiced pear and ginger, soda, lime | Built on a house base you make once a week |
| 0% spirit serve | 0% gin and tonic, or a 0% spritz | Looks and drinks like the alcoholic version |
| 0% beer | One bottled or canned alcohol-free lager | The easiest switch for beer drinkers; long shelf life |
| Low-alcohol option | A light spritz or a lower-ABV beer | For guests cutting down, not cutting out |
| Premium soft (optional) | Kombucha, house soda, or a good non-alcoholic wine | A grown-up choice with food |
Rules that make the list work:
- One base, two serves. A house cordial or shrub used in the signature and the spritz halves the waste and the prep. Date the bottle and keep it in the fridge.
- Write the ABV on the menu. "0.0%", "0.5%" and "4%" mean different things to a guest who is pregnant, driving or abstaining. Say which is which.
- Name the drinks like cocktails. A name and three ingredients sell better than "mocktail" or a list of sodas.
- Use the cocktail glass and garnish. Guests ordering no and low serves often do not want to be asked why.
- Train the pitch. "We have three alcohol-free cocktails and a 0% lager" at the start of the order does more than any menu line.
UK owners have a cost edge on 0% beer: Alcohol Duty is charged at 0.00 for products from 0 to 1.2% ABV, according to HMRC's Alcohol Duty rates (from 1 February 2026). VAT still applies to every drink you sell. The restaurant VAT guide covers that.
How do you cost and price a mocktail?
Cost every ingredient per serve, then price so the cash you keep is at least 70% of the cash you keep on the alcoholic drink the guest would otherwise order. That is the decision rule. A low price looks generous, but every guest who switches then costs you money you need in January.
Cash margin here means the price without VAT or sales tax, minus the ingredient cost. For the GP percentage and the full price table, use the GP calculator guide or the menu price calculator. In the US, where bars price by pour cost, our bar business plan shows how to cost a cocktail the same way.
Worked example (UK, prices include 20% VAT; example costs from one bar's invoices, use your own)
| Drink | Cost per serve | Menu price | Price ex VAT | Cash margin | Share of the drink it replaces |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House gin sour | £2.40 | £11.00 | £9.17 | £6.77 | (the benchmark) |
| House signature, first draft | £0.95 | £6.50 | £5.42 | £4.47 | 66%: too low |
| House signature, repriced | £0.95 | £7.00 | £5.83 | £4.88 | 72%: keep |
| 0% gin and tonic | £2.30 | £8.50 | £7.08 | £4.78 | 71%: keep |
| Pint of lager | £1.60 | £6.20 | £5.17 | £3.57 | (the benchmark) |
| 0% lager, 330ml bottle | £1.10 | £4.50 | £3.75 | £2.65 | 74%: keep |
The same test in the US (menu prices before sales tax)
| Drink | Cost per serve | Menu price | Cash margin | Share of the drink it replaces |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| House margarita | $3.10 | $14.00 | $10.90 | (the benchmark) |
| House signature mocktail | $1.30 | $9.00 | $7.70 | 71%: keep |
| Draft beer, 16 oz | $1.70 | $8.00 | $6.30 | (the benchmark) |
| Non-alcoholic beer, can | $1.50 | $6.00 | $4.50 | 71%: keep |
Three costing traps:
- 0% spirits are not cheap. Per measure, a 0% gin can cost as much as the real one. Check its cost before you price it like a soft drink.
- Count the garnish and the mixer. A sprig, a dehydrated wheel and a premium tonic can add a third to the cost of a serve.
- Cost the batch, then the serve. If a litre of house cordial costs £6.00 ($7.50) and makes 20 serves, the base is £0.30 ($0.38) a glass. Waste from a batch you throw away on Sunday belongs in that cost.
After January: keep, change or drop each serve
Check each serve's sales and cash margin in the first week of February. Then:
| What you see | What to do |
|---|---|
| Sells weekly and keeps 70% or more of the benchmark | Keep it all year |
| Sells weekly, below 70% | Raise the price or cut the cost, then keep it |
| Sold mainly in January | Rotate it out; bring it back next December |
| Barely sells | Drop it; reuse its base elsewhere or stop buying |
Guests who drink less do it all year, so the serves that pass in January should stay on. For the dish side of the same month, see the Veganuary menu guide. For the night before it starts, see New Year's Eve pricing. In the UK, Burns Night on Monday 25 January is the month's one whisky night, so keep a no and low serve on hand for the toast; our Burns supper guide covers the rest of the night.
A costed no and low list to copy
Copy this into a spreadsheet or onto your recipe cards. Fill in your own invoice prices.
NO AND LOW DRINKS LIST (January to December)
Rule: each serve keeps at least 70% of the cash margin of the drink it replaces.
1. HOUSE SIGNATURE: [name], 0.0% ABV
Base: house cordial 50ml ............ cost ____ (batch cost ÷ serves)
Soda 150ml .......................... cost ____
Citrus and garnish .................. cost ____
Cost per serve ...................... ____
Price (incl. VAT / before sales tax) ____ Cash margin ____
Replaces: house cocktail, cash margin ____ Share ____%
2. 0% SPIRIT SERVE: [name], 0.0% ABV
0% spirit 50ml ...................... cost ____
Tonic or mixer ...................... cost ____
Garnish ............................. cost ____
Cost per serve ____ Price ____ Cash margin ____ Share ____%
3. 0% BEER: [brand], 0.5% ABV or under, bottle or can
Cost per unit ____ Price ____ Cash margin ____
Replaces: pint or draft, cash margin ____ Share ____%
4. LOW-ALCOHOL OPTION: [name], ____% ABV
Cost per serve ____ Price ____ Cash margin ____ Share ____%
5. PREMIUM SOFT (optional): [kombucha / house soda / alcohol-free wine]
Cost per serve ____ Price ____ Cash margin ____
Menu line: "Alcohol-free and low" with the ABV beside each drink.
Staff line: "We have [number] alcohol-free cocktails and a 0% beer."
Review date: first week of February. Keep, change or drop each serve.
Can TablePort handle this for you?
Yes, for the costing and the review. The recipes and the prices stay yours.
- Give each serve a recipe. The recipe builder shows the cost as you add ingredients, with sub-recipes for a house cordial used in more than one drink.
- Keep costs current. Photograph a supplier invoice and the lines come back as a draft to check; when a price moves, the drinks that use it move with it.
- Review in February. The menu engineering report sorts items into stars, plowhorses, puzzles and dogs, so you can see which serves sell and earn.
The honest limit: the costs are only as current as the prices you enter or the invoices you approve. See Stock & Cost Control.
Frequently asked questions
- How much should I charge for a mocktail?
Enough that the cash you keep is at least 70% of what you keep on the cocktail it replaces. In the UK example above, that meant £7.00 rather than £6.50 for a house mocktail next to an £11.00 cocktail. In the US example, $9.00 next to a $14.00 margarita passed the test.
- How many alcohol-free drinks should be on a menu?
Three to five: a house signature, a 0% spirit serve, a 0% beer, a low-alcohol option and, if you sell enough with food, a premium soft drink or alcohol-free wine. Fewer looks like an afterthought; more leaves open bottles going flat.
- Is alcohol-free beer subject to alcohol duty in the UK?
Not below 1.2% ABV. HMRC's rate tables show 0.00 duty for beer, cider, wine and spirits from 0 to 1.2% ABV. VAT still applies when you sell it in a pub or restaurant.
- Should a pub or restaurant discount drinks in January?
Not across the board. Drinks sales already fall sharply in January, so a blanket discount mostly gives money to guests who would have come anyway. A good no and low list, priced for cash margin, keeps the guests who are cutting down.
- Does Dry January really hurt pubs and restaurants?
It is one reason for a quiet month, not the only one. Our analysis of HMRC clearances and Texas receipts shows drinks falling by roughly a fifth to a third from December to January, and owners also point to post-Christmas bills and resolutions.
