Raising menu prices in 2027: which items, how much, and how to tell your regulars

In our analysis of ONS survey data, the share of UK accommodation and food businesses expecting to raise prices doubled from 16.9% in December 2025 to 35.3% in January 2026. Expect the venues around you to reprice in January too, so plan yours now.

Raise menu prices item by item, not across the board. Size the rise from your own cost increases, put the larger rises on dishes whose costs moved and the smallest on the items regulars compare, and time it to your wage date: UK venues before the National Living Wage rises 3.9% to £13.21 on 1 April 2027, US venues in January when most state minimum wages change. Then tell regulars before they see the bill. Last checked: 5 November 2026.

How fast are restaurant prices rising going into 2027?

Menu prices are still rising faster than general food prices on both sides of the Atlantic. These are the latest official figures:

The ONS also asks businesses every month whether they expect to raise prices. In our analysis of its Business Insights and Conditions Survey (wave 166, published 22 October 2026), the share of UK accommodation and food businesses expecting to raise prices doubled from 16.9% in December 2025 to 35.3% in January 2026, and peaked at 42.4% in April 2026. For all businesses the January figure was 22.1%. The winter before showed the same jump, from 22.3% in December 2024 to 34.4% in January 2025. The survey puts November 2026 at 18.6%, so expect the venues around you to reprice in the new year too, and guests to see rises everywhere rather than only at yours.

The US average hides big swings by ingredient. In the BLS consumer price index for the year to September 2026, ground beef rose 5.4%, fish and seafood 6.9% and coffee 7.1%, while chicken fell 0.6% and eggs fell 20.6%. These are grocery prices, not your wholesale invoices, but they show why one percentage across the whole menu is the wrong answer.

When should you raise menu prices?

Raise prices when your costs change, not when it feels safe. Our analysis of the monthly price indexes shows the two markets reprice at different times.

UK: February, ahead of April. In ONS restaurant and cafe prices for 2023 to 2026, January is the only month prices fall on average (by 0.2%, the January offers), and February has the biggest rise of the year, an average of 1.2%. April follows at 0.7%. UK operators put new menus in place in late winter, before the April wage and business rates bills land.

US: steadily, with a January jump for counter service. In BLS data for 2023 to 2026, full-service menu prices rise about 0.3% almost every month, with no single repricing month. Limited-service prices rise most in January, an average of 0.5%, as chains reprice for the new year and new state wage rates.

A simple rule:

How much should you raise menu prices?

Enough to cover what your costs actually did, item by item. Start with two numbers: how much more each dish costs to make, and how much more an hour of labour costs you.

UK worked example. A neighbourhood restaurant takes £12,000 a week before VAT. Its weekly wage bill is £3,800, of which £2,600 is paid to staff on or near the National Living Wage. Food is 28% of sales and suppliers have put prices up about 3% over the year.

• Wages: £2,600 x 3.9% = £101 a week, plus employer National Insurance on the increase, roughly £15, so about £116.
• Food: £12,000 x 28% x 3% = £101 a week.
• Total: £217 a week, or 1.8% of sales.

So this venue needs its average price to rise about 1.8% to stand still, not 5% and not nothing. Our labour cost guide covers the 2026/27 rates and employer costs in detail.

US worked example. A diner takes $18,000 a week. Its hourly payroll is $5,200, and the state minimum wage that most of the team earns rises 4% on 1 January. Food is 31% of sales and up 3% on the year.

• Wages: $5,200 x 4% = $208, plus about 7.65% employer payroll taxes on the increase, $16, so $224.
• Food: $18,000 x 31% x 3% = $167.
• Total: $391 a week, or 2.2% of sales.

For the full "stand-still price rise" calculation across every cost line, see our US restaurant profit margin guide. To set the new price of each dish from its cost and your target gross profit, use the menu price calculator; our GP calculator guide explains the formula and the VAT step.

Which dishes should go up, and which should stay?

An average rise of 2% does not mean every dish goes up 2%. Spread it where guests notice least and where costs moved most.

Our menu engineering guide shows how to sort your own dishes into these groups from one month of sales.

A fee is not a shortcut. A percentage "kitchen fee" instead of a price rise is regulated by state law in the US, and several states require it in the menu price or on every place prices appear. Our guide to junk-fee laws works through the fee route against a straight rise.

Watch the ceiling. Do not raise a price to make up for falling sales of that dish. When volume is already falling, a rise on that item is more likely to cost you sales than to fix the margin. Look at how many you sold in the last eight weeks against the same weeks last year before you touch it.

Where volume is holding, a small rise is a cheap test. Make it on the items with room, protect the anchors, and check the numbers four weeks later.

How do you tell regulars about a price rise?

Tell them once, plainly, before they see the bill. Most guests accept a rise they understand. What annoys them is finding out at the till.

• Brief the team first. Every server should be able to give the same one-line answer.
• Keep a value option. A lunch set, a weekday deal or a smaller portion shows you still care about price.
• Update every place the price appears on the same day: printed menus, QR and online menus, delivery menus, your website and the menu link on Google. Guests are charged what the till says, but they expect what they saw.

STAFF LINE (if a guest asks)
"Our suppliers and wages went up this year, so we've moved a few prices.
We held [the burger / the pint / the lunch set] where it was."

MENU OR TABLE NOTE
From [date] some of our prices have changed. Our ingredient and staff costs
have risen, and we would rather keep cooking with [the same suppliers / the
same portions] than cut corners. [Item] and our [weekday lunch] stay at
[price]. Thank you for eating with us.

EMAIL OR SOCIAL POST (to regulars)
A quick note before you next visit. From [date] you'll see new prices on part
of our menu. Wages and ingredients have gone up, and we've chosen to keep
[what you are protecting]. [Anchor item] stays at [price], and [value option]
is still on every [day]. See you soon, [name].

The price review worksheet to copy

Fill one row per dish, sorted by how many you sold last month.

MENU PRICE REVIEW                      Date: [ ]   New prices live from: [ ]

Average rise needed to stand still (from the worked example): [ ]%
Wage rise and date: [ ]%  from [ ]     Food cost change this year: [ ]%

Dish | Sold last month | Old price | Old cost | New cost | Type (anchor /
cost jumped / popular / premium / slow / add-on) | New price | Cash margin
old | Cash margin new | Note

[ ] | [ ] | [ ] | [ ] | [ ] | [ ] | [ ] | [ ] | [ ] | [ ]
[ ] | [ ] | [ ] | [ ] | [ ] | [ ] | [ ] | [ ] | [ ] | [ ]

CHECKS BEFORE GOING LIVE
[ ] Anchor items held or minimal
[ ] Every dish with a cost rise of more than 5% repriced or respecified
[ ] Slow sellers reworked or removed, not just made dearer
[ ] Weighted average rise across last month's sales = [ ]%
[ ] Printed, QR, website, delivery and Google menus updated on the same day
[ ] Pre-booked set menus honoured at the quoted price
[ ] Team briefed with the staff line
[ ] Review date, four weeks after launch: [ ] (covers, spend per head,
    sales of each changed dish)

The weighted average matters. If you raise slow sellers by 10% and best sellers by 0%, your menu looks dearer but your takings barely move. Multiply each dish's rise by last month's sales of that dish and divide by total sales to see the real figure.

Can TablePort handle this for you?

TablePort keeps the numbers for the review current.

1. Plate costs follow your invoices. With the Stock add-on, every dish carries its plate cost, and when a supplier price moves, the dishes that use it move with it, so you see which dishes need repricing first.
2. Margin recommendations. The daily report includes AI-written margin recommendations: items to promote and items to review.
3. One price list. QR ordering opens the same menu your POS uses, and a Sites website shows live menus and prices, so a change needs no second edit.
4. The free menu price calculator sets each price from cost and target GP.

The honest limit: the price decision is yours. TablePort shows cost and margin; it does not know what your regulars will pay. See stock management.