Busy restaurant, empty bank account: a 13-week cash flow forecast for January
Build a 13-week restaurant cash flow forecast: the January sales dip from official data, UK and US tax dates, a worked example and a template to copy.
By the TablePort teamFacts checked 11 min read
January sales run 18% to 21% below December in Britain and 6% to 12% below in the US, in our analysis of official figures, but the quarter's bills do not shrink. That is how a busy December turns into an empty bank account in February.
A 13-week cash flow forecast fixes the gap between profit and the bank balance. It lists, week by week, the cash you expect to bank and every payment due, starting from today's balance, so you see the worst week before it arrives. For January, plan for takings well below December and for the quarterly bills that land in the same weeks. Last checked: 5 November 2026.
What is a 13-week cash flow forecast?
It is a weekly list of money in and money out for the next quarter, rolled forward every week. Thirteen weeks is long enough to see a quarterly VAT bill, a rent quarter day or a tax deadline coming, and short enough to forecast from your own recent weeks rather than guesswork.
It differs from your profit and loss account in three ways that explain most "busy but broke" months:
- Timing. Profit counts a sale when you make it and a cost when you incur it. Cash counts them when the money moves. December's supplier invoices on 30-day terms are paid out of January's takings.
- Money that is not yours yet. In the UK, the VAT inside your takings belongs to HMRC until the quarter is paid. In the US, sales tax belongs to the state. Deposits held for future bookings and unspent gift card balances are owed to guests in food and drink.
- Things that are not costs. Loan repayments, equipment bought outright and the owner's drawings leave the bank but do not appear as costs in the profit figure.
If you are writing a pre-opening plan for a lender, the structure is different; see our UK and US business plan guides.
How much do restaurant sales fall in January?
More than most owners budget for, and more in the UK than in the US. Our analysis of official monthly figures:
| Measure | UK (Great Britain) | US |
|---|---|---|
| January sales against December, same years | Down 18.0% to 20.7% (2023 to 2026) | Down 5.7% to 11.8% (2022 to 2026) |
| January sales per day, average year = 100 | 82 | 89 |
| February sales per day, average year = 100 | 94 | 97 |
| March sales per day, average year = 100 | 97 | 101 |
| December sales per day, average year = 100 | 108 | 100 |
Sources and method. UK: ONS monthly turnover of food and beverage serving services in Great Britain (series JQ37, not seasonally adjusted, current prices), published in the Index of Services dataset on 15 October 2026. US: Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade sales of food services and drinking places (NAICS 722, not seasonally adjusted), downloaded 5 November 2026. Per-day figures divide each month by its days and compare with the average day of the same year, 2023 to 2025. January 2026 figures are still subject to revision.
Staffing follows the same curve. In the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics, US food services and drinking places employment fell between 1.7% and 2.6% from December to January in every year from 2022 to 2026.
For your own forecast, use your own last January if you have one. If you do not, a reasonable starting point is to take your normal week and scale it by the figures above: about 82% in a British January, 89% in a US one.
Which bills land between January and March?
The dates below are the ones that catch owners out. Put every one in the forecast, even if the amount is a guess.
| UK payment | Usual date |
|---|---|
| PAYE and National Insurance | 22nd of the month if paid electronically (gov.uk) |
| VAT for a quarter ending 31 December | 1 month and 7 days after the quarter: 7 February 2027, a Sunday; the money must reach HMRC by then (gov.uk) |
| Self Assessment (sole traders and partners) | 31 January 2027: balance for 2025/26 plus the first payment on account for 2026/27 (gov.uk) |
| Business rates | Usually 10 monthly instalments, April to January, unless you asked for 12 (for example Hillingdon) |
| Rent on the English quarter days | 25 December and 25 March, if your lease uses them |
| US payment | Usual date |
|---|---|
| Payroll tax deposits, monthly schedule | 15th of the following month (IRS) |
| Form 941 for the fourth quarter and Form 940 | 31 January, which moves to Monday 1 February 2027 because the 31st is a Sunday |
| Sales tax | Set by your state, often monthly or quarterly; check your state's calendar |
| Rent and loan payments | Usually the 1st of each month |
Two of these help as well as hurt. In the UK, if your council collects rates in 10 instalments, January is the last one and February and March have no rates bill. In the US, the January payroll tax deposit covers December's bigger payroll. Our guides to Self Assessment and Forms 940 and 941 cover the returns themselves, and our Making Tax Digital guide covers the quarterly updates more UK sole traders start in April 2027.
How do you build the forecast?
Seven steps, about an hour the first time and fifteen minutes a week after that.
- Start from today's bank balance, not last month's profit.
- Forecast takings by week from covers and average spend, or from the same weeks last year. Apply the January dip. Subtract card fees if your provider deducts them before paying you.
- Take off money already received. Gift cards sold before Christmas and deposits taken for January bookings were banked last year. When those guests come in, the covers bring less new cash.
- List payroll on the dates staff are paid, then the tax on its own date.
- List suppliers by their terms. If you pay on 30 days, January's supplier payments are for December's bigger orders.
- Add every fixed date from the tables above, plus rent, loans, leases, insurance, utilities and software.
- Work out the closing balance for each week and mark any week that falls below your buffer. A simple buffer is two weeks of normal outgoings.
Worked example: a 60-cover restaurant, January to March
A UK neighbourhood restaurant normally banks £14,400 a week including VAT. Its 13-week forecast starts on Monday 28 December 2026 with £22,000 in the bank. Its buffer, two weeks of normal outgoings, is £15,000. The figures are illustrative.
| Week starting | Takings banked | Paid out | Big items that week | Closing cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Dec | £13,770 | £12,700 | Last rates instalment, monthly bills | £23,070 |
| 4 Jan | £11,090 | £7,490 | £600 of Christmas gift cards redeemed | £26,670 |
| 11 Jan | £11,090 | £7,490 | Gift cards redeemed | £30,270 |
| 18 Jan | £11,090 | £10,890 | PAYE and NI | £30,470 |
| 25 Jan | £11,690 | £7,490 | £34,670 | |
| 1 Feb | £13,350 | £34,870 | VAT for October to December, £24,000 | £13,150 |
| 8 Feb | £13,350 | £6,870 | £19,630 | |
| 15 Feb | £13,350 | £6,870 | £26,110 | |
| 22 Feb | £13,350 | £10,270 | PAYE and NI | £29,190 |
| 1 Mar | £13,730 | £10,870 | Monthly bills | £32,050 |
| 8 Mar | £13,730 | £7,290 | £38,490 | |
| 15 Mar | £13,730 | £7,290 | £44,930 | |
| 22 Mar | £13,730 | £19,690 | Rent for the March quarter day, PAYE and NI | £38,970 |
What the forecast tells this owner:
- January looks fine and is not. The balance rises through January because December's VAT has not been paid yet. Week six drops almost £2,000 below the buffer.
- The quarter "makes" £17,000, but not really. About £22,000 of the January to March takings is VAT owed on 7 May. Move it to a separate account each week and the true balance at the end of March is closer to £17,000.
- The fix is cheap if done early. Ask suppliers in December to move one payment run by two weeks, or pay the VAT in two parts through a Time to Pay arrangement agreed with HMRC before the due date. Either keeps week six above the buffer.
A US version has the same shape. Replace VAT with sales tax on your state's dates, put payroll tax deposits on the 15th and Forms 940 and 941 on 1 February, and use about 89% of a normal week for January.
What should you do when a week falls below the buffer?
Act in the order that costs least, and act before the week arrives.
| Weeks until the low point | What to do |
|---|---|
| More than 6 | Trim January rotas to forecast covers; delay non-urgent repairs and stock-ups; push regulars to book |
| 3 to 6 | Ask your main suppliers for longer terms on one run; ask the landlord about monthly rent instead of quarterly |
| Under 3 | Call HMRC or the IRS before the due date to agree a payment plan; talk to your bank about an overdraft |
| Already below | Protect payroll and tax first; pay suppliers you depend on next; then everything else |
In the UK, HMRC lets businesses that cannot pay in full set up a payment plan (see if you cannot pay your tax bill on time). In the US, the IRS offers payment plans. Interest and penalties may still apply, so check with your accountant for your situation.
The 13-week template to copy
Copy this into a spreadsheet, one column per week.
13-WEEK CASH FLOW FORECAST Business: [ ] Updated: [ ]
Buffer (two weeks of normal outgoings): [ ]
Week starting [W1] [W2] [W3] ... [W13]
OPENING CASH [ ] =previous week's closing cash
MONEY IN
Card takings banked [ ] (covers x average spend, after card fees)
Cash takings banked [ ]
Deposits taken for bookings [ ] (cash in, but owed to guests)
Gift cards sold [ ] (cash in, but owed to guests)
Other (events, catering) [ ]
TOTAL IN =SUM
MONEY OUT
Staff net pay [ ] (on pay dates)
PAYE and NI / payroll taxes [ ] (UK 22nd; US deposit dates)
Suppliers [ ] (by payment terms, not delivery date)
Rent [ ] (quarter days or monthly)
Business rates / property tax[ ]
VAT / sales tax [ ] (quarter or state due date)
Self Assessment / estimated tax [ ]
Utilities [ ]
Loans, leases, card machine rental [ ]
Insurance, software, subscriptions [ ]
Repairs and sundries [ ]
Owner drawings [ ]
TOTAL OUT =SUM
CLOSING CASH =OPENING + IN - OUT
Below buffer? (Y/N) [ ]
SET ASIDE (not yours yet)
VAT or sales tax collected so far this period [ ]
Deposits held for future bookings [ ]
Unredeemed gift card balance [ ]
TRUE CASH = CLOSING CASH - SET ASIDE [ ]
Each Monday: replace last week's forecast with actuals, add week 14,
and note any week below the buffer and what you will do about it.
The bank-against-forecast line is the fifth number on our Monday KPI scorecard, so the two take one sitting.
Can TablePort handle this for you?
TablePort supplies the numbers the forecast needs.
- Receipts. The daily report shows each day's sales with an AI-written summary, so last year's weeks and this week's actuals are ready to copy into the receipts line.
- Money held for guests. Deposits taken on bookings and gift card sales are recorded in the same system as the bill, so you can see what is held.
- Accounting. Sales sync to Xero or QuickBooks, with accounting exports for your accountant.
The honest limit: busy-day projections ("Tomorrow projected 23% busier") help you staff tomorrow; they do not forecast 13 weeks of cash. The forecast itself stays in your spreadsheet. See restaurant management.
Frequently asked questions
- Why is my restaurant busy but always short of cash?
Usually timing and money that is not yours. VAT or sales tax sits in your account until the quarter is paid, deposits and gift cards are owed to guests, and suppliers on 30-day terms are paid out of the following month. A 13-week forecast shows those payments before they land.
- How much cash should a restaurant keep in reserve?
A common minimum is enough to cover two to four weeks of normal outgoings, before VAT or sales tax set aside. Seasonal venues need more going into January and February, when takings in Great Britain run about a fifth below December.
- How do I forecast January sales if I opened this year?
Take a normal week from the autumn and scale it. Official figures suggest January takings per day are about 82% of an average day in Great Britain and about 89% in the US. Replace the estimate with real numbers each week as January happens.
- Should deposits and gift card sales count as cash in?
Count them when the money arrives, but also list them in a set-aside line. They are owed to guests as meals, so the cash is not free to spend. The forecast's "true cash" line subtracts them along with VAT or sales tax collected.
- What if my forecast shows I cannot pay a tax bill?
Contact HMRC or the IRS before the due date. Both offer payment plans for businesses that cannot pay in full, though interest and penalties may still apply. Talking early usually leaves more options than talking after a missed payment. Check with your accountant first.
- How often should I update a 13-week forecast?
Every week. Replace the week just gone with actual figures, add a new week at the end and look again at the lowest week ahead. It takes about fifteen minutes once the spreadsheet exists.
