January is slow: a restaurant marketing plan that fills midweek tables without discounting the weekend

"January is competitive for discounting, particularly in Manchester," James Bates, managing director of Maray, told Restaurant Online in November 2024. His answer was half price on vegetarian dishes, Monday to Thursday only, and his restaurants served 7% more guests in January 2024 than in the December before.

Plan seven weeks, from 28 December to 14 February. Contact the guests you already have before you look for new ones: December first-timers, lapsed regulars and gift card holders, but only those who agreed to hear from you. Put any offer on Monday to Thursday only, and run the break-even test below first, so the discount buys new covers instead of paying guests who would have come anyway. Last checked: 5 November 2026.

How slow is January for restaurants?

Nationally, January sales fall about 7% from December in the US and about 21% in Britain, and January is one of the two weakest months of the year in both. If your own fall is much bigger, your December is carrying you, and the plan below is about turning December's guests into January's.

Our analysis of three official series, downloaded on 5 November 2026:

In 2025, US restaurant sales per day in January were 13.9% below the average day from March to December. Britain's sharper drop comes from a bigger December: turnover in December 2025 was 14.6% above the year's average month, against 0.6% in the US data.

Method notes: JQ37 is the ONS monthly turnover series for food and beverage serving (its title code, GBServTO, marks it as Great Britain). ONS does not state an adjustment on the series page, but a 15% rise from November to December and a 21% fall in January can only appear in unadjusted data, so we treat it as not seasonally adjusted and compare like months only. The Census figures are the not seasonally adjusted table for NAICS 722; BLS jobs are the not seasonally adjusted series, and 2026 months are preliminary.

Two readings for an owner. First, a fall of 40% or 50% is about your business, not the economy: usually a December full of parties and gift buyers who do not come back on their own. Second, January is predictable, so it can be planned in December rather than discovered in the second week.

Who should you contact first in January?

Start with the guests who know you, in this order, because each group needs a smaller nudge than a stranger:

1. December first-timers. They came for a party or a gift card dinner. A thank-you with a reason to return in January (a new menu, a midweek set menu) is the cheapest booking you will win this year.
2. Gift card holders. Cards bought at Christmas are January covers waiting for a date. Ryan Blackburn, chef-owner of The Old Stamp House in Ambleside, told the same Restaurant Online feature that when it reopens in early January, "guests who've received vouchers as presents take the opportunity to redeem them." The US gift card guide and the UK gift voucher guide cover expiry and the other rules.
3. Lapsed regulars. Guests who used to visit every few weeks and have not been in for 60 to 90 days. A personal note from the owner beats a coupon.
4. Birthdays in January and February. A short, early invitation works better than a discount on the day.
5. Local workers at lunch. Update your Google profile with January hours and a lunch menu, so the people searching "lunch near me" see you are open.

Who you can send to. In the UK, marketing emails and texts need consent or the soft opt-in for existing customers, under PECR. In the US, commercial email follows CAN-SPAM and marketing texts generally need prior express written consent under the TCPA. The loyalty programme guide sets out both, with the regulators' guidance. Check with an adviser for your situation.

Should you discount in January? The break-even test

Only if the offer brings enough new covers to pay for the discount you also give to guests who would have come anyway. Work it out before you print anything.

New covers needed for each existing cover = d ÷ (1 - d - c)

d = discount as a share of the full check (25% off = 0.25)
c = variable cost as a share of the full check: food, drink and card fees

Worked example. A Tuesday does 40 covers at £32 a head before VAT ($40 in a US room before sales tax). Food, drink and card fees are 32% of the check.

At 25% off, every full-price cover earns £21.76 ($27.20) after variable costs and every discounted cover earns £13.76 ($17.20). The 40 guests who would have come anyway cost you £320 ($400), so you need 24 extra covers just to stand still. Extra staff hours come on top.

The test gives three ways to make an offer pay:

• Shrink d. A set menu at a modest saving, or a free side, beats a percentage off the whole bill.
• Shrink c. Discount dishes with low ingredient cost, not the steak.
• Shrink the existing covers who use it. Send the offer only to lapsed guests, or make it Monday to Thursday only, so your Friday and Saturday regulars keep paying full price.

Maray, in Liverpool and Manchester, used all three. Its "Green January" offer takes 50% off vegetarian and vegan dishes Monday to Thursday, and Restaurant Online reported that the restaurants served 7% more guests in January 2024 than in the December before. "January is competitive for discounting, particularly in Manchester. But we were keen to not discount indiscriminately," managing director James Bates told Restaurant Online (27 November 2024). "Financially, it works because we're using what are, generally, higher GP ingredients, which limits risk."

January restaurant marketing ideas that do not need a discount

Give guests a reason to come that is not a price. Use the calendar, the menu and the guests' own plans:

• A January menu. Lighter dishes, a Veganuary special and a proper no and low drinks list for guests cutting down. The Dry January guide shows how to price the drinks so they keep your margin.
• Ticketed nights. Burns Night falls on Monday 25 January 2027, which turns a dead Monday into a sold one in the UK; see the Burns Night supper guide. Any one-off night with a fixed menu and a deposit fills a quiet slot.
• Valentine's Day, early. It falls on Sunday 14 February 2027, and regulars book before strangers start searching. In the US, our analysis of Google Trends data found Valentine's restaurant searches starting in the first week of January, so open bookings and email your list then. In the UK, have the menu and booking page live by Monday 18 January at the latest, and earlier if the menu is costed; the UK Valentine's guide has the timing data and a sittings plan.
• Super Bowl LXI (US). Also on Sunday 14 February 2027, at SoFi Stadium, according to the NFL's 2026 to 2027 important dates. Takeout platters can carry a slow Sunday.
• Reviews. A quiet month is a good time to ask every happy table for a Google review, within Google's rules: ask everyone, and never offer a reward for one.

A seven-week January marketing plan to copy

One email or message a week is enough for most restaurants. Every send goes only to guests who agreed to hear from you.

JANUARY PLAN: 28 DECEMBER 2026 TO 14 FEBRUARY 2027

WEEK 1 (Mon 28 Dec to Sun 3 Jan)
- Thank-you email to December first-timers: "Come back in January for [new
  menu / midweek set menu]". No discount.
- US: open Valentine's Day bookings with a deposit. UK: cost the set menu.
- Count your January bookings against last year.

WEEK 2 (4 to 10 Jan)
- Launch the January menu and the no and low drinks list.
- Midweek offer goes live, Monday to Thursday only (run the break-even test).
- Gift card holders: remind them of the balance and how to book.

WEEK 3 (11 to 17 Jan)
- Win-back note from the owner to regulars not seen for 60 to 90 days.
- Update Google hours, photos and the lunch menu.
- Announce your ticketed night (UK: Burns Night, Mon 25 Jan).

WEEK 4 (18 to 24 Jan)
- US: Martin Luther King Jr. Day lunch on Mon 18 Jan.
- Valentine's email 1: menu, seatings and deposit (UK: booking page live
  by Mon 18 Jan at the latest).
- Birthday invitations for February birthdays.

WEEK 5 (25 to 31 Jan)
- UK: Burns Night, Mon 25 Jan.
- Payday weekend for many monthly-paid guests (Fri 29 Jan): promote, do
  not discount.
- US: Super Bowl matchup set on Sun 31 Jan; open platter pre-orders.

WEEK 6 (1 to 7 Feb)
- Valentine's email 2: remaining seats and the waitlist.
- Ask January's guests for a review.

WEEK 7 (8 to 14 Feb)
- Valentine's: last seats, then waitlist only.
- US: Super Bowl pickups on Sun 14 Feb.
- End the January offer. Compare covers Monday to Thursday with last
  January, and which sends led to bookings.

Keep the plan honest by checking one number a week: covers Monday to Thursday against the same week last year. If it is not moving by week 4, change the offer, not the weekend prices.

Can TablePort handle this for you?

Yes, for the sending, the targeting and the measuring. The offers stay yours.

1. Build the lists from real visits. Marketing Suite segments guests by spend, visits, recency and upcoming reservations, so "regulars not seen for 90 days" is a saved audience, not an export.
2. Turn on the standard automations. Win-back, first-visit thanks and birthdays are among ten editable starters, and every send passes a consent check.
3. See what booked. Clicks are connected to the orders and bookings that follow.
4. Sell gift cards online for Valentine's Day, kept in Apple Wallet or Google Wallet.

The honest limit: sends go only to guests who agreed, and Marketing Suite is an add-on at £99 ($129) a month with 10,000 sends included. See Marketing Suite.